
India’s Exceptional Underperformance in 2025: A 30-Year Anomaly likely to correct itself!
- December 31, 2025
- Author - Niraj Shah
Investors are currently exhibiting an undeniable affinity for US large-cap stocks, channeling monumental sums into benchmark exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track this segment of the market. Our latest financial intelligence reveals a remarkable surge in capital directed towards the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, $VOO, underscoring a powerful narrative of confidence and strategic positioning. This isn’t just a fleeting trend; it’s a testament to the enduring appeal of America’s corporate giants in a dynamic global landscape.
The data speaks volumes: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, $VOO, recorded a staggering +$20.82 billion net inflow in November, marking its second-highest monthly inflow in at least four years. This robust performance follows a record April 2025, which saw VOO pull in approximately $20.9 billion, its largest monthly intake in 15 years, according to Bloomberg data reported by InvestorsObserver. This consistent interest extends a remarkable streak, as November marked the fifth consecutive month of net inflows for the fund.
Year-to-date, $VOO net inflows have surged by an impressive +17%, reaching a substantial +$124.29 billion. This puts the fund firmly on track for its biggest yearly inflow since its inception, highlighting an unprecedented period of investor allocation to US large-cap equities. Supporting this trend, Bloomberg data as of November 21, 2025, indicated VOO’s year-to-date haul had already reached $120 billion. The resilience of VOO’s appeal is further evidenced by its consistent performance since early 2023, having experienced only a single month with net outflows. For context, U.S. stock funds collectively garnered nearly $38 billion in inflows across November, with ETFs like VOO and SPY absorbing over 60% of that volume, according to data from LSEG Lipper and Bloomberg.
Several compelling factors are driving this extraordinary influx into US large-cap stocks:
1. Perceived Stability and Quality: In an environment characterized by macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, large-cap companies, particularly those within the S&P 500, are often seen as a “flight to quality.” These firms typically boast strong balance sheets, established market positions, and diversified revenue streams, offering a sense of reliability. “Large caps are characterised by their stability and reliability, especially in times of economic stress,” notes IG International, attributing this to their international operations. BlackRock, in its 2025 Investment Directions, also stated a preference for “large-cap, high quality U.S. equities”.
2. Robust Corporate Earnings and Economic Resilience: The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience, and corporate earnings have been a significant tailwind. Corporate revenues within the S&P 500 rose 8.4% in Q3 2025, the largest increase since 2022, according to Trading News, reinforcing the fundamental strength behind VOO’s advance. Analysts from Nasdaq noted investor optimism for 2025, citing a resilient economy and projected corporate earnings growth.
3. The AI Boom and Tech Leadership: A significant portion of the S&P 500’s performance has been fueled by the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence (AI) and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks. Companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, significant components of the S&P 500, continue to drive market enthusiasm. This innovation acts as a powerful magnet for growth-oriented investors.
4. Anticipation of Dovish Monetary Policy: Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are also playing a crucial role. As the Fed signals a potential easing of monetary policy, investors are encouraged to re-engage with risk assets, making broad-market equity ETFs highly attractive. This “risk-on” sentiment is amplified by an expected end to quantitative tightening, injecting further liquidity into the financial system.
5. Low-Cost, Diversified Exposure: ETFs like VOO offer investors a cost-effective and highly diversified way to gain exposure to the broader US equity market. VOO’s low 0.03% expense ratio is a significant draw, making it a preferred vehicle for both institutional and retail investors seeking broad market access.
The sustained and accelerating inflows into US large-cap ETFs, particularly VOO, paint a clear picture: investors are actively seeking broad market exposure and perceive strong underlying fundamentals in America’s largest companies. This trend suggests a continuation of confidence in the S&P 500 as a core allocation. While high valuations exist, the combination of strong earnings, technological innovation, and a potentially more accommodative monetary policy environment provides a compelling backdrop.
For investors, the key takeaway is the reaffirmation of large-cap equities as a cornerstone of a well-diversified portfolio. However, it’s always prudent to consider your individual risk tolerance and investment objectives. As BlackRock’s Kristy Akullian notes, “We see tailwinds potentially favoring US equities over the rest of the world, particularly large-cap companies”.
As 2025 draws to a close, the momentum behind US large-cap stocks appears robust. The confluence of corporate strength, technological advancements, and supportive macroeconomic conditions suggests that funds like VOO will likely continue to attract significant investor capital. While market volatility is always a possibility, the prevailing sentiment points towards continued outperformance for these established market leaders.